Luzern 1-0 St. Gallen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
31%
3.54
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.54
2-3 Goals
43%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
10%
8.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.62
1/2
5%
24.3
1/X
9%
12.65
X/1
10%
5.91
X/2
9%
5.55
X/X
13%
5.4
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
20%
3.32
2/X
9%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.5pp
31%
Draw
25%
+5.9pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-4.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.5pp
43%
BTTS No
38%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 42%
-9% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -4%
1.68/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.54
-1% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
20.8 Crosses 18.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
1W-3D-2L
AWAY St. Gallen
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.42 xG 1.64
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
236 Passes 276
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.08.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
20.05.2023 Luzern Luzern 1-1 HT 1-1 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
19.02.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-2 HT 1-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
19.10.2022 Luzern Luzern 3-3 HT 2-2 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
13.08.2022 St. Gallen St. Gallen 4-1 HT 1-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
18.04.2022 Luzern Luzern 3-2 HT 0-1 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
1-0
AWAY St. Gallen
1.81 xG 1.39
47% Ball Possession 53%
19 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
227 Passes 292
66% Pass Accuracy 73%
33 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Luzern vs St. Gallen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luzern edged past St. Gallen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 34%) promised a tight game; Luzern found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Luzern had 47% of the ball to St. Gallen's 53%, shots finished 19-17, expected goals 1.81 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Gallen led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Luzern and 2.33 for St. Gallen.

What was the final score of Luzern vs St. Gallen?

Luzern 1-0 St. Gallen in the Switzerland - Super League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs St. Gallen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Luzern 35%, draw 31%, St. Gallen 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Luzern) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Luzern) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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