Atalanta 3-1 Lazio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
4.32
6+ Goals
9%
22.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.8
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.75
X/1
18%
4.31
X/2
13%
7.18
X/X
13%
4.07
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
8%
5.73
2/X
7%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.0pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.0pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lazio EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +0%
1.45/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.43
+4% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
379 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
18.7 Crosses 13.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lazio
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.19 xG 1.18
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
412 Passes 450
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2023 Lazio Lazio 3-2 HT 2-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
11.02.2023 Lazio Lazio 0-2 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
23.10.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 0-2 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
22.01.2022 Lazio Lazio 0-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
30.10.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 2-2 HT 1-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
31.01.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 1-3 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
3-1
AWAY Lazio
2.27 xG 1.22
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
477 Passes 417
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
39 Box Touches 12
26 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Lazio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta got the better of Lazio 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atalanta had 53% of the ball to Lazio's 47%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.27 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atalanta and 1.67 for Lazio.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Lazio?

Atalanta 3-1 Lazio in the Italy - Serie A on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Lazio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 45%, draw 28%, Lazio 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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