Napoli 2-1 Hellas Verona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.15
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.67
6+ Goals
11%
15.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.85
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
17.95
X/1
14%
3.48
X/2
9%
12.55
X/X
9%
5.34
2/1
11%
24.7
2/2
9%
10.8
2/X
7%
19.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
63%
-11.8pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.9pp
24%
Away Win
15%
+8.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.7pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Hellas Verona EU Bookmakers 18%
-7% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -6%
1.68/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.44
-5% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
436 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.1 Crosses 14.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Hellas Verona
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.44 xG 0.83
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
458 Passes 249
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
21.10.2023 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-3 HT 0-2 Napoli Napoli İTA
15.04.2023 Napoli Napoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
15.08.2022 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 2-5 HT 1-2 Napoli Napoli İTA
13.03.2022 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
07.11.2021 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 1-1 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
23.05.2021 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 0-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
2-1
AWAY Hellas Verona
1.29 xG 0.93
69% Ball Possession 31%
19 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
514 Passes 188
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
28 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Hellas Verona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli squeezed past Hellas Verona 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Napoli had 69% of the ball to Hellas Verona's 31%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.29 to 0.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Napoli and 1.00 for Hellas Verona.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Hellas Verona?

Napoli 2-1 Hellas Verona in the Italy - Serie A on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Hellas Verona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Napoli 51%, draw 25%, Hellas Verona 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Napoli)
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