Ingolstadt 2-1 Dynamo Dresden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
36%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.07
Over 2.5
44%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.9
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.13
6+ Goals
9%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.9 — our 30% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.19
1/2
7%
24.3
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
17%
6.27
X/2
14%
5.03
X/X
12%
5.07
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
15%
3.08
2/X
8%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+2.0pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-4.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.8pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Dynamo Dresden EU Bookmakers 45%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +0%
1.85/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/0.90
+34% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +38%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
283 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 77%
13.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
9.0 Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ingolstadt
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Dynamo Dresden
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.19 xG 0.93
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
162 Passes 497
63% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 2-0 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
20.03.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 2-3 HT 1-2 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
17.09.2022 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 1-1 HT 1-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
18.12.2021 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 3-0 HT 2-0 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL2
24.07.2021 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 3-0 HT 1-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2
27.02.2021 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 4-0 HT 2-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ingolstadt
2-1
AWAY Dynamo Dresden
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
6 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ingolstadt vs Dynamo Dresden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ingolstadt nicked a narrow win over Dynamo Dresden 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Ingolstadt made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ingolstadt had 42% of the ball to Dynamo Dresden's 58%, shots finished 15-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dynamo Dresden led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ingolstadt and 2.17 for Dynamo Dresden.

What was the final score of Ingolstadt vs Dynamo Dresden?

Ingolstadt 2-1 Dynamo Dresden in the Germany - 3rd Division on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ingolstadt vs Dynamo Dresden?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ingolstadt win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Ingolstadt 36%, draw 27%, Dynamo Dresden 36%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/27/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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