Citizen AA 1-1 Yuen Long — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.96
Over 2.5
56%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.38
No
49%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
12%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
4%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.2pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.3pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+5.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
30%
+13.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
70%
-13.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
68%
-17.1pp
49%
BTTS No
32%
+17.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Citizen AA EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Yuen Long EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
1.48/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/0.82
-10% / +122% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +106%
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
307 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Citizen AA
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Yuen Long
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Yuen Long Yuen Long 2-4 HT 2-2 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
12.03.2023 Citizen AA Citizen AA 1-0 HT 0-0 Yuen Long Yuen Long HK2
20.11.2022 Yuen Long Yuen Long 3-1 HT 2-1 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
21.11.2021 Citizen AA Citizen AA 0-0 HT 0-0 Yuen Long Yuen Long HK2
30.03.2014 Yuen Long Yuen Long 2-1 HT 2-0 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Citizen AA
1-1
AWAY Yuen Long
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Citizen AA vs Yuen Long
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Citizen AA and Yuen Long couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Citizen AA at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Citizen AA had 53% of the ball to Yuen Long's 47%, shots finished 18-7.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Citizen AA and 1.40 for Yuen Long.

What was the final score of Citizen AA vs Yuen Long?

Citizen AA 1-1 Yuen Long in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Citizen AA vs Yuen Long?

Before kick-off our model rated a Citizen AA win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Citizen AA 42%, draw 24%, Yuen Long 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Citizen AA), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Citizen AA) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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