Kasımpaşa 2-1 Alanyaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.55
No
41%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.31
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.95
6+ Goals
15%
8.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.31
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
26.5
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1
11%
5.47
X/2
12%
5.97
X/X
13%
5.22
2/1
5%
24.7
2/2
15%
3.73
2/X
8%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.5 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.8pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.5pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Alanyaspor EU Bookmakers 38%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / +0%
1.66/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.26
+33% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -11%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 82%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
22.3 Crosses 19.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kasımpaşa
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Alanyaspor
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.80 xG 1.64
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
319 Passes 435
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.09.2023 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 3-3 HT 2-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
30.05.2023 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 1-3 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
04.01.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 4-1 HT 2-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
13.02.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-2 HT 0-1 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
23.09.2021 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 2-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
03.05.2021 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-0 HT 2-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kasımpaşa
2-1
AWAY Alanyaspor
1.81 xG 0.69
45% Ball Possession 55%
19 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 9
304 Passes 383
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 28
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa squeezed past Alanyaspor 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Kasımpaşa found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Kasımpaşa had 45% of the ball to Alanyaspor's 55%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 1.81 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kasımpaşa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.50 for Alanyaspor.

What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?

Kasımpaşa 2-1 Alanyaspor in the Turkey - Super League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kasımpaşa win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kasımpaşa 38%, draw 27%, Alanyaspor 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kasımpaşa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kasımpaşa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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