Atalanta 0-1 Bologna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 4 Feb 2025

Atalanta
0-1 HT 0-0
Bologna
📅04/02/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Italy - Cup – 2024/2025

Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.84
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.84
6+ Goals
11%
16.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.56
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.9
X/1
15%
4.36
X/2
11%
7.86
X/X
14%
4.58
2/1
8%
25.0
2/2
7%
6.3
2/X
6%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.6pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atalanta v Bologna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Bologna EU Bookmakers 28%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
2.06/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.37
+83% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -98% / +109%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
419 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
16.1 Crosses 15.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Atalanta vs Bologna Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bologna
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.30 xG 0.90
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
377 Passes 402
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2024 Bologna Bologna 1-1 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
03.03.2024 Atalanta Atalanta 1-2 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
23.12.2023 Bologna Bologna 1-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
08.04.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 0-2 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
09.01.2023 Bologna Bologna 1-2 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
20.03.2022 Bologna Bologna 0-1 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA

Atalanta 0-1 Bologna — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
0-1
AWAY Bologna
0.83 xG 1.14
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
385 Passes 320
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Bologna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna squeezed past Atalanta 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Atalanta at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Atalanta had 55% of the ball to Bologna's 45%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 0.83 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bologna led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atalanta and 1.17 for Bologna.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Bologna?

Atalanta 0-1 Bologna in the Italy - Cup on 04/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Bologna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 46%, draw 27%, Bologna 27%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atalanta) ✗ BTTS Yes
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