Bologna 1-1 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 28 Sep 2024

Bologna
1-1 HT 0-0
Atalanta
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Bologna vs Atalanta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
30%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.3
6+ Goals
10%
21.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.12
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1 EV+ ✗
19%
5.67
X/2
11%
5.27
X/X
13%
4.0
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
13%
3.71
2/X
6%
13.15
Value flag · X/1 at 5.67 — our 19% vs market 13.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
34%
+7.7pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.6pp
30%
Away Win
36%
-6.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.8pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bologna v Atalanta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bologna EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 40%
+7% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -25%
1.18/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.32
+19% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
342 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 79%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
16.2 Crosses 15.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Bologna vs Atalanta Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bologna
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atalanta
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.93 xG 1.12
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
408 Passes 375
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.03.2024 Atalanta Atalanta 1-2 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
23.12.2023 Bologna Bologna 1-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
08.04.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 0-2 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
09.01.2023 Bologna Bologna 1-2 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
20.03.2022 Bologna Bologna 0-1 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
28.08.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 0-0 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA

Bologna 1-1 Atalanta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bologna
1-1
AWAY Atalanta
0.10 xG 2.00
36% Ball Possession 64%
5 Total Shots 23
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 9
224 Passes 453
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
10 Box Touches 48
7 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bologna vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna and Atalanta shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Bologna at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Bologna had 36% of the ball to Atalanta's 64%, shots finished 5-23, expected goals 0.10 to 2.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bologna had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bologna and 0.67 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Bologna vs Atalanta?

Bologna 1-1 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bologna vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bologna win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Bologna 42%, draw 28%, Atalanta 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bologna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bologna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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