Udinese 2-3 Inter — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.4
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
48%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.83
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
9%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 26% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
10.7
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
10%
18.65
X/1
6%
13.4
X/2
15%
3.59
X/X
11%
6.05
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
24%
1.78
2/X
8%
17.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Inter win — 48%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
15%
+8.8pp
28%
Draw
21%
+7.4pp
48%
Away Win
64%
-16.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Udinese EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter EU Bookmakers 69%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
0.99/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.13/0.93
+11% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +14%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
302 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 458 · 86%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.2
15.6 Crosses 22.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Udinese
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Inter
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.77 xG 2.52
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
252 Passes 518
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.04.2024 Udinese Udinese 1-2 HT 1-0 Inter Inter İTA
09.12.2023 Inter Inter 4-0 HT 3-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
18.02.2023 Inter Inter 3-1 HT 1-1 Udinese Udinese İTA
18.09.2022 Udinese Udinese 3-1 HT 1-1 Inter Inter İTA
01.05.2022 Udinese Udinese 1-2 HT 0-2 Inter Inter İTA
31.10.2021 Inter Inter 2-0 HT 0-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Udinese
2-3
AWAY Inter
0.77 xG 2.22
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 3
327 Passes 538
85% Pass Accuracy 90%
25 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Udinese vs Inter
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter squeezed past Udinese 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Inter as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Udinese had 40% of the ball to Inter's 60%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 0.77 to 2.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Inter's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Udinese and 2.33 for Inter.

What was the final score of Udinese vs Inter?

Udinese 2-3 Inter in the Italy - Serie A on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Udinese vs Inter?

Before kick-off our model rated an Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Udinese 24%, draw 28%, Inter 48%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Inter) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Inter) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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