Mafra U23 1-2 Leixoes U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 4 Feb 2025

📅04/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
25%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.68
Over 2.5
34%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.88
No
60%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
4%
X/X
19%
2/1
4%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.6pp
33%
Draw
28%
+5.0pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-3.3pp
66%
Under 2.5
56%
+10.7pp
34%
Over 2.5
44%
-10.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-9.1pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra U23 EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Leixoes U23 EU Bookmakers 32%
-54% / -54% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.96
-47% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
328 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra U23
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Leixoes U23
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
24 Total Shots 6
12 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.04.2024 Leixoes U23 Leixoes U23 1-3 HT 1-1 Mafra U23 Mafra U23 PORU23
30.01.2024 Mafra U23 Mafra U23 1-2 HT 0-1 Leixoes U23 Leixoes U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra U23
1-2
AWAY Leixoes U23
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mafra U23 vs Leixoes U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leixoes U23 squeezed past Mafra U23 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Mafra U23 at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mafra U23 had 54% of the ball to Leixoes U23's 46%, shots finished 10-13.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Mafra U23 and 1.50 for Leixoes U23.

What was the final score of Mafra U23 vs Leixoes U23?

Mafra U23 1-2 Leixoes U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 04/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra U23 vs Leixoes U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mafra U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Mafra U23 42%, draw 33%, Leixoes U23 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mafra U23) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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