Xinabajul 3-1 Malacateco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Guatemala - National League, 4 Mar 2024

📅04/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.8pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.0pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.7pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Xinabajul EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Malacateco EU Bookmakers 30%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.07/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.26
-18% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +4%
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Xinabajul
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Malacateco
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 3
05.02.2024 Malacateco Malacateco 1-1 HT 1-0 Xinabajul Xinabajul GUAT
25.09.2023 Xinabajul Xinabajul 2-1 HT 1-0 Malacateco Malacateco GUAT
20.08.2023 Malacateco Malacateco 3-1 HT 1-1 Xinabajul Xinabajul GUAT
23.04.2023 Malacateco Malacateco 3-0 HT 3-0 Xinabajul Xinabajul GUAT
27.02.2023 Xinabajul Xinabajul 1-1 HT 0-0 Malacateco Malacateco GUAT
20.11.2022 Malacateco Malacateco 2-1 HT 0-0 Xinabajul Xinabajul GUAT
POST-MATCH Xinabajul vs Malacateco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Xinabajul beat Malacateco 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Xinabajul as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malacateco led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Xinabajul and 1.83 for Malacateco.

What was the final score of Xinabajul vs Malacateco?

Xinabajul 3-1 Malacateco in the Guatemala - National League on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Xinabajul vs Malacateco?

Before kick-off our model rated a Xinabajul win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Xinabajul 45%, draw 23%, Malacateco 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Xinabajul) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Xinabajul) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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