Den Bosch 1-4 Groningen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 4 Mar 2024

Den Bosch
1-4 HT 0-0
Groningen
📅04/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Den Bosch vs Groningen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.65
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
48%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.76
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
19%
3.24
6+ Goals
10%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 28% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
8.3
1/2
5%
22.7
1/X
6%
16.95
X/1
9%
10.45
X/2
16%
3.74
X/X
10%
5.51
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.02
2/X
7%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
18%
+10.0pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
48%
Away Win
58%
-10.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Den Bosch v Groningen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Groningen EU Bookmakers 62%
+9% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.01/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/0.61
-6% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +107%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
307 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 77%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
17.4 Crosses 19.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.1

Den Bosch vs Groningen Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Den Bosch
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Groningen
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
0.80 xG 0.34
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
201 Passes 486
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 26
6 Crosses 24
6 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.09.2023 Groningen Groningen 0-3 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
17.04.2005 Den Bosch Den Bosch 1-2 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
14.11.2004 Groningen Groningen 3-1 HT 0-1 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL
20.02.2002 Den Bosch Den Bosch 1-4 HT 1-2 Groningen Groningen HOL
28.10.2001 Groningen Groningen 2-0 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL

Den Bosch 1-4 Groningen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Den Bosch
1-4
AWAY Groningen
0.75 xG 2.04
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 6
216 Passes 304
67% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 21
POST-MATCH Den Bosch vs Groningen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Groningen swept aside Den Bosch 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Groningen as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Den Bosch had 44% of the ball to Groningen's 56%, shots finished 10-21, expected goals 0.75 to 2.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Groningen led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Den Bosch and 2.20 for Groningen.

What was the final score of Den Bosch vs Groningen?

Den Bosch 1-4 Groningen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Den Bosch vs Groningen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Den Bosch 29%, draw 23%, Groningen 48%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Groningen) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Groningen)
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