PSV II 3-1 Cambuur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 4 Mar 2024

PSV II
3-1 HT 0-0
Cambuur
📅04/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

PSV II vs Cambuur Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
43%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.74
Over 2.5
63%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.38
No
42%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.38
2-3 Goals
37%
2.11
4-5 Goals
30%
2.52
6+ Goals
15%
5.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.85
1/2
7%
21.25
1/X
8%
12.15
X/1
12%
6.91
X/2
15%
5.62
X/X
10%
6.23
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
25.5
2/2
21%
2.89
2/X
5%
12.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 11% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
39%
-5.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
43%
Away Win
37%
+6.3pp
37%
Under 2.5
33%
+4.2pp
63%
Over 2.5
67%
-4.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
68%
-10.0pp
42%
BTTS No
32%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSV II v Cambuur — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV II EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Cambuur EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +35%
1.42/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.97
-6% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +22%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
305 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 81%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
14.6 Crosses 15.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5

PSV II vs Cambuur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV II
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Cambuur
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.25 xG 2.24
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
374 Passes 322
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.09.2023 Cambuur Cambuur 3-4 HT 0-2 PSV II PSV II HOL2
22.01.2021 Cambuur Cambuur 5-1 HT 3-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
30.11.2020 PSV II PSV II 0-1 HT 0-0 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
28.02.2020 Cambuur Cambuur 4-2 HT 1-1 PSV II PSV II HOL2
23.09.2019 PSV II PSV II 0-1 HT 0-0 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
15.03.2019 Cambuur Cambuur 3-1 HT 2-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2

PSV II 3-1 Cambuur — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV II
3-1
AWAY Cambuur
1.21 xG 1.37
63% Ball Possession 37%
9 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
515 Passes 256
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
31 Box Touches 17
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH PSV II vs Cambuur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV II beat Cambuur 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cambuur at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, PSV II had 63% of the ball to Cambuur's 37%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.21 to 1.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cambuur led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for PSV II and 2.83 for Cambuur.

What was the final score of PSV II vs Cambuur?

PSV II 3-1 Cambuur in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV II vs Cambuur?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cambuur win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split PSV II 34%, draw 23%, Cambuur 43%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cambuur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cambuur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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