MVV Maastricht 1-3 Dordrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 4 Mar 2024

MVV Maastricht
1-3 HT 0-3
Dordrecht
📅04/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2025/2026

MVV Maastricht vs Dordrecht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
32%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.96
Over 2.5
57%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.33
No
42%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
7.19
2-3 Goals
38%
2.21
4-5 Goals
28%
2.44
6+ Goals
13%
4.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.44
1/2
8%
21.85
1/X
8%
12.35
X/1
12%
6.37
X/2
8%
5.94
X/X
13%
6.49
2/1
8%
23.15
2/2
16%
3.13
2/X
6%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+3.5pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.1pp
32%
Away Win
39%
-7.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
30%
+13.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
70%
-13.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
71%
-13.4pp
42%
BTTS No
29%
+13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MVV Maastricht v Dordrecht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 43%
+2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +9%
1.37/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.97
+15% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +65%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
310 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 78%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
16.5 Crosses 15.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.2

MVV Maastricht vs Dordrecht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Dordrecht
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.46 xG 1.64
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
334 Passes 346
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.08.2023 Dordrecht Dordrecht 2-2 HT 0-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
14.04.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-1 HT 1-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
23.09.2022 Dordrecht Dordrecht 1-2 HT 1-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
25.02.2022 Dordrecht Dordrecht 3-1 HT 0-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
15.10.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-1 HT 2-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
23.04.2021 Dordrecht Dordrecht 0-1 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2

MVV Maastricht 1-3 Dordrecht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
1-3
AWAY Dordrecht
1.25 xG 1.30
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 5
363 Passes 285
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 31
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Dordrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dordrecht got the better of MVV Maastricht 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

Our pre-match lean was MVV Maastricht at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 55% of the ball to Dordrecht's 45%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.25 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MVV Maastricht had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for MVV Maastricht and 1.33 for Dordrecht.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Dordrecht?

MVV Maastricht 1-3 Dordrecht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Dordrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 41%, draw 28%, Dordrecht 32%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (MVV Maastricht) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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