Alianza Petrolera 0-1 Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 4 Mar 2024

Alianza Petrolera
0-1 HT 0-1
Santa Fe
📅04/03/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2024

Alianza Petrolera vs Santa Fe Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
34%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+5.0pp
29%
Draw
31%
-1.9pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-3.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.0pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alianza Petrolera v Santa Fe — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 40%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -7%
1.23/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.18
+17% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -15%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
274 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 79%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
16.6 Crosses 18.3
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.1

Alianza Petrolera vs Santa Fe Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Santa Fe
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.29 xG 1.04
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
204 Passes 377
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
18.09.2023 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
10.04.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 3-1 HT 3-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
11.10.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 4-0 HT 2-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
16.04.2022 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
12.09.2021 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
07.04.2021 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-3 HT 0-2 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL

Alianza Petrolera 0-1 Santa Fe — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
0-1
AWAY Santa Fe
0.65 xG 0.56
68% Ball Possession 32%
17 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
354 Passes 125
79% Pass Accuracy 57%
22 Box Touches 7
28 Crosses 7
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Fe squeezed past Alianza Petrolera 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Santa Fe made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 68% of the ball to Santa Fe's 32%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 0.65 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 0.83 for Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Santa Fe?

Alianza Petrolera 0-1 Santa Fe in the Colombia - Primera on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Petrolera win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 37%, draw 29%, Santa Fe 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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