Independiente Medellin 1-0 Aguilas Doradas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 4 Mar 2024

📅04/03/2024 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.56
Over 2.5
37%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.0pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.7pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.7pp
63%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.1pp
37%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.7pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Aguilas Doradas EU Bookmakers 37%
+12% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -15%
0.98/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.05
-8% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
15.7 Crosses 14.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Aguilas Doradas
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.28 xG 0.91
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
306 Passes 327
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
26.08.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 1-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
05.03.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3-0 HT 1-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
23.11.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 0-1 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
13.11.2022 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 1-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
29.08.2022 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 3-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
02.03.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 4-0 HT 2-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
1-0
AWAY Aguilas Doradas
0.61 xG 0.18
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
509 Passes 277
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 6
13 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin edged past Aguilas Doradas 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 32% / 32% — and on the day Independiente Medellin made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 62% of the ball to Aguilas Doradas's 38%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.61 to 0.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.00 for Aguilas Doradas.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas?

Independiente Medellin 1-0 Aguilas Doradas in the Colombia - Primera on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 36%, draw 32%, Aguilas Doradas 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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