Adana Demirspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 4 Mar 2024

Adana Demirspor
1-0 HT 1-0
Fatih Karagümrük
📅04/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Turkey - Super League – 2023/2024

Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
29%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.57
6+ Goals
9%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 27% vs market 24.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.22
1/2
8%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
20%
5.03
X/2
9%
6.29
X/X
10%
4.51
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
12%
4.4
2/X
8%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+4.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.6pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-2.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.1pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adana Demirspor v Fatih Karagümrük — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adana Demirspor EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -6%
1.44/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.58
-15% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -9%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
296 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 79%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
16.6 Crosses 18.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3

Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adana Demirspor
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.58 xG 1.60
52% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
418 Passes 371
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.10.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 HT 0-0 Adana Demirspor Adana Demirspor TSL
17.05.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-3 HT 1-0 Adana Demirspor Adana Demirspor TSL
25.12.2022 Adana Demirspor Adana Demirspor 2-1 HT 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
22.01.2022 Adana Demirspor Adana Demirspor 5-0 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
11.09.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-0 HT 2-0 Adana Demirspor Adana Demirspor TSL
30.07.2020 Adana Demirspor Adana Demirspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L

Adana Demirspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adana Demirspor
1-0
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.69 xG 0.84
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 7
246 Passes 301
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adana Demirspor edged past Fatih Karagümrük 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Adana Demirspor as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Adana Demirspor had 47% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 53%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.69 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Adana Demirspor had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.67 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Adana Demirspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - Super League on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Adana Demirspor win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Adana Demirspor 46%, draw 26%, Fatih Karagümrük 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Adana Demirspor), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Adana Demirspor) ✓ Under 2.5
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