Alanyaspor 3-1 Trabzonspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 4 Mar 2024

Alanyaspor
3-1 HT 2-0
Trabzonspor
📅04/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2023/2024

Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.21
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.66
6+ Goals
11%
15.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 27% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.15
1/2
10%
28.0
1/X
6%
13.2
X/1
13%
5.93
X/2
12%
5.14
X/X
12%
4.49
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
19%
3.4
2/X
8%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alanyaspor v Trabzonspor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alanyaspor EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Trabzonspor EU Bookmakers 43%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.61/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.24
+22% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
20.9 Crosses 15.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alanyaspor
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Trabzonspor
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.68 xG 1.92
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
321 Passes 452
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.10.2023 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
03.06.2023 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 5-1 HT 4-1 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
09.01.2023 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 5-0 HT 3-0 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
20.02.2022 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 0-4 HT 0-4 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
27.09.2021 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 1-1 HT 1-1 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
08.03.2021 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 1-3 HT 0-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL

Alanyaspor 3-1 Trabzonspor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alanyaspor
3-1
AWAY Trabzonspor
2.66 xG 1.44
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 24
5 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 9
239 Passes 491
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 39
14 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alanyaspor saw off Trabzonspor 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Trabzonspor at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Alanyaspor had 35% of the ball to Trabzonspor's 65%, shots finished 11-24, expected goals 2.66 to 1.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Trabzonspor led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Alanyaspor and 2.00 for Trabzonspor.

What was the final score of Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?

Alanyaspor 3-1 Trabzonspor in the Turkey - Super League on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Trabzonspor win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Alanyaspor 32%, draw 27%, Trabzonspor 41%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Trabzonspor)
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