Antalyaspor 1-0 Gaziantep FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 4 Mar 2024

Antalyaspor
1-0 HT 1-0
Gaziantep FK
📅04/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2023/2024

Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.89
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.08
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
16.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 30% vs market 26.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.56
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.1
X/1
13%
4.2
X/2
11%
7.8
X/X
14%
4.6
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
11%
6.08
2/X
6%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-8.7pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.1pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Antalyaspor v Gaziantep FK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Antalyaspor EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gaziantep FK EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.39/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.58
-3% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.7 Crosses 15.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Antalyaspor
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Gaziantep FK
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.97 xG 1.44
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
416 Passes 304
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 1-0 HT 0-0 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
04.02.2023 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 1-0 HT 1-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
26.08.2022 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 5-2 HT 1-2 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
23.01.2022 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
13.09.2021 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 2-0 HT 0-0 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
21.02.2021 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL

Antalyaspor 1-0 Gaziantep FK — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Antalyaspor
1-0
AWAY Gaziantep FK
1.84 xG 0.48
47% Ball Possession 53%
21 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 5
320 Passes 394
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Antalyaspor squeezed past Gaziantep FK 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Antalyaspor found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Antalyaspor had 47% of the ball to Gaziantep FK's 53%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 1.84 to 0.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Antalyaspor's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gaziantep FK led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Antalyaspor and 1.33 for Gaziantep FK.

What was the final score of Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?

Antalyaspor 1-0 Gaziantep FK in the Turkey - Super League on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Antalyaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Antalyaspor 40%, draw 30%, Gaziantep FK 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Antalyaspor), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Antalyaspor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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