Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 4 Mar 2025

📅04/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.25
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.4
6+ Goals
14%
13.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 25% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.0
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.2
X/1
17%
4.02
X/2
7%
10.8
X/X
10%
5.27
2/1
7%
23.4
2/2
9%
9.02
2/X
5%
17.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
59%
-2.7pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.8pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+5.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.96/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.56
+31% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / +24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
404 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
16.5 Crosses 9.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 3.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
1-1
AWAY Lille
0.28 xG 0.88
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
339 Passes 493
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund and Lille couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Borussia Dortmund at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 43% of the ball to Lille's 57%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.28 to 0.88.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Lille?

Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Lille in the Champions League on 04/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 57%, draw 21%, Lille 23%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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