Club Brugge 1-3 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 4 Mar 2025

Club Brugge
1-3 HT 1-1
Aston Villa
📅04/03/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
45%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.45
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
10%
6.37
X/2
19%
5.29
X/X
12%
4.4
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
18%
3.33
2/X
9%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
32%
-4.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
45%
Away Win
40%
+5.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.1pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Club Brugge v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Club Brugge EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
1.07/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.73
-53% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 77%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
12.9 Crosses 16.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Club Brugge
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Aston Villa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.38 xG 0.40
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
356 Passes 491
85% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
06.11.2024 Club Brugge Club Brugge 1-0 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa ŞMP

Club Brugge 1-3 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Club Brugge
1-3
AWAY Aston Villa
1.05 xG 1.36
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 1
466 Passes 353
90% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Club Brugge vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa beat Club Brugge 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Club Brugge had 56% of the ball to Aston Villa's 44%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 1.05 to 1.36.

What was the final score of Club Brugge vs Aston Villa?

Club Brugge 1-3 Aston Villa in the Champions League on 04/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Club Brugge vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Club Brugge 28%, draw 28%, Aston Villa 45%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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