PSV Eindhoven 1-7 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 4 Mar 2025

PSV Eindhoven
1-7 HT 1-3
Arsenal
📅04/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

PSV Eindhoven vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.5
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
45%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.71
Over 2.5
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.77
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.94
6+ Goals
10%
18.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
6.4
1/2
7%
26.5
1/X
8%
14.85
X/1
9%
7.9
X/2
15%
4.41
X/X
9%
4.35
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.6
2/X
6%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+7.5pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.9pp
45%
Away Win
48%
-3.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.5pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSV Eindhoven v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 52%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +12%
1.93/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.43/1.12
-9% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / +78%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
275 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 81%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
12.6 Crosses 6.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 0.5

PSV Eindhoven vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Arsenal
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.77 xG 1.86
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
288 Passes 517
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 34
10 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.12.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal ŞMP
20.09.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 4-0 HT 3-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven ŞMP
27.10.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal AVL
20.10.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 1-0 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven AVL
20.02.2007 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal ŞMP
24.11.2004 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Arsenal ŞMP

PSV Eindhoven 1-7 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
1-7
AWAY Arsenal
1.40 xG 1.91
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 3
365 Passes 329
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 34
25 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal cruised past PSV Eindhoven 7-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 7-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 53% of the ball to Arsenal's 47%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.40 to 1.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.17 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Arsenal?

PSV Eindhoven 1-7 Arsenal in the Champions League on 04/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 32%, draw 23%, Arsenal 45%. The final score 1-7 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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