Maribor 2-0 Aluminij — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - Cup, 4 Mar 2025

Maribor
2-0 HT 0-0
Aluminij
📅04/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Slovenia - Cup – 2024/2025

Maribor vs Aluminij Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
23%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.1
Over 2.5
59%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
69%
-13.2pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.1pp
23%
Away Win
12%
+11.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
44%
-3.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
56%
+3.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.4pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Maribor v Aluminij — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maribor EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Aluminij EU Bookmakers 15%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
2.17/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.00
-24% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +31%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
353 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 71%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.3 Yellow Cards 4.0

Maribor vs Aluminij Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maribor
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Aluminij
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.04.2024 Aluminij Aluminij 0-2 HT 0-1 Maribor Maribor SLVN
11.02.2024 Maribor Maribor 7-0 HT 4-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN
01.10.2023 Aluminij Aluminij 1-0 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
30.07.2023 Maribor Maribor 1-0 HT 0-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN
14.05.2022 Maribor Maribor 3-1 HT 0-1 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN
10.03.2022 Aluminij Aluminij 3-3 HT 1-2 Maribor Maribor SLVN

Maribor 2-0 Aluminij — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maribor
2-0
AWAY Aluminij
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Maribor vs Aluminij
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maribor beat Aluminij 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Maribor as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Maribor had 56% of the ball to Aluminij's 44%, shots finished 11-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maribor had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Maribor and 0.83 for Aluminij.

What was the final score of Maribor vs Aluminij?

Maribor 2-0 Aluminij in the Slovenia - Cup on 04/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maribor vs Aluminij?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Maribor 56%, draw 21%, Aluminij 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maribor) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maribor) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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