Luzern 1-0 Yverdon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 4 Apr 2024

📅04/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.53
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
29%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.6
2-3 Goals
44%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.87
6+ Goals
10%
8.17
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1.88
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.0
X/1
18%
3.86
X/2
10%
11.65
X/X
8%
6.35
2/1
8%
20.7
2/2
14%
8.51
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
16.55
Value flag · 2/X at 16.55 — our 9% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
61%
-16.2pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.9pp
29%
Away Win
18%
+11.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Yverdon EU Bookmakers 21%
-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.67/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.55
-35% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
24.9 Crosses 11.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Yverdon
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.95 xG 1.52
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
342 Passes 300
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.01.2024 Yverdon Yverdon 2-1 HT 1-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
22.10.2023 Luzern Luzern 2-1 HT 1-0 Yverdon Yverdon İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
1-0
AWAY Yverdon
0.75 xG 1.18
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 6
310 Passes 334
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 23
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Yverdon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luzern nicked a narrow win over Yverdon 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Luzern as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Luzern had 48% of the ball to Yverdon's 52%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.75 to 1.18 — the balance of chances actually favoured Yverdon.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Luzern and 1.50 for Yverdon.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Yverdon?

Luzern 1-0 Yverdon in the Switzerland - Super League on 04/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Yverdon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Luzern 45%, draw 26%, Yverdon 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Luzern) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Luzern) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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