Salzburg 3-4 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - ÖFB Cup, 4 Apr 2024

Salzburg
3-4 HT 1-1
Sturm Graz
📅04/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Austria - ÖFB Cup – 2023/2024

Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.9
Over 2.5
56%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.9
No
45%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
3.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
31%
3.54
6+ Goals
10%
13.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.54 — our 31% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.06
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.15
X/1
13%
3.72
X/2
8%
10.4
X/X
11%
5.24
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.6
2/2
10%
8.45
2/X
9%
17.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-8.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.6pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
49%
-5.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
51%
+5.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.5pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Salzburg v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salzburg EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 21%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
2.33/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.54
+9% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +89%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
334 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 69%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
20.7 Crosses 15.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.0

Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salzburg
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.66 xG 0.70
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 5
268 Passes 217
68% Pass Accuracy 62%
20 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.03.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-1 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
09.02.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
16.09.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-2 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
21.05.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 2-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
23.04.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
03.02.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK

Salzburg 3-4 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salzburg
3-4
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.57 xG 2.66
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
308 Passes 175
73% Pass Accuracy 63%
33 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz squeezed past Salzburg 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Salzburg at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Salzburg had 60% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 40%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.57 to 2.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Salzburg and 0.83 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?

Salzburg 3-4 Sturm Graz in the Austria - ÖFB Cup on 04/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Salzburg 51%, draw 26%, Sturm Graz 23%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Salzburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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