Sturm Graz 0-1 Salzburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.92
2-3 Goals
45%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.0
6+ Goals
8%
18.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 29% vs market 28.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.15
1/2
11%
27.5
1/X
10%
13.95
X/1
14%
6.74
X/2
15%
4.54
X/X
9%
4.31
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.96
2/X
7%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+2.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
42%
Away Win
44%
-1.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.7pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Salzburg EU Bookmakers 48%
-4% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.01/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.17
+10% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +30%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
244 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 78%
15.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
15.2 Crosses 16.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Salzburg
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.73 xG 1.63
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
213 Passes 283
61% Pass Accuracy 69%
18 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.02.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
16.09.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-2 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
21.05.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 2-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
23.04.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
03.02.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
22.10.2022 Salzburg Salzburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
0-1
AWAY Salzburg
0.33 xG 1.43
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 9
0 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 0
192 Passes 261
65% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Salzburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salzburg edged past Sturm Graz 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Salzburg as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 47% of the ball to Salzburg's 53%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.33 to 1.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.33 for Salzburg.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Salzburg?

Sturm Graz 0-1 Salzburg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Salzburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 32%, draw 26%, Salzburg 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Salzburg), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVU More Austria - Bundesliga
31 Mar 2024
15:30 Hartberg vs Rapid Wien Analysis →
15:30 LASK Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt Analysis →