Celta Vigo II 3-1 Barcelona II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.63
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
3.11
6+ Goals
10%
10.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 27% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-9.4pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+6.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.7pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo II EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona II EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
2.13/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.43
+34% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 14.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo II
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Barcelona II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2024 Barcelona II Barcelona II 2-2 HT 0-1 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II İS3
01.10.2023 Barcelona II Barcelona II 1-1 HT 1-1 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo II
3-1
AWAY Barcelona II
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo II vs Barcelona II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo II saw off Barcelona II 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Celta Vigo II as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Celta Vigo II had 44% of the ball to Barcelona II's 56%, shots finished 14-14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Celta Vigo II and 1.50 for Barcelona II.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo II vs Barcelona II?

Celta Vigo II 3-1 Barcelona II in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo II vs Barcelona II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo II win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo II 44%, draw 27%, Barcelona II 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celta Vigo II), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celta Vigo II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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