İsveç (K) 3-2 İtalya (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Karnten Unterliga, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.19
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.41
6+ Goals
7%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 27% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
25%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
3%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.5pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.5pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İsveç (K) EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY İtalya (K) EU Bookmakers 20%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-50% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 71%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İsveç (K)
2W-1D-2L
AWAY İtalya (K)
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 1.20
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
233 Passes 270
69% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 0
31.10.2023 İsveç (K) İsveç (K) 1-1 HT 0-0 İtalya (K) İtalya (K) AVKUL
26.09.2023 İtalya (K) İtalya (K) 0-1 HT 0-1 İsveç (K) İsveç (K) AVKUL
29.07.2023 İsveç (K) İsveç (K) 5-0 HT 3-0 İtalya (K) İtalya (K) KDK
09.10.2018 İtalya (K) İtalya (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 İsveç (K) İsveç (K) HAZ
25.07.2017 İsveç (K) İsveç (K) 2-3 HT 1-2 İtalya (K) İtalya (K) ABK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İsveç (K)
3-2
AWAY İtalya (K)
4.26 xG 0.78
54% Ball Possession 46%
22 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
354 Passes 285
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
42 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH İsveç (K) vs İtalya (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İsveç (K) edged past İtalya (K) 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had İsveç (K) as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, İsveç (K) had 54% of the ball to İtalya (K)'s 46%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 4.26 to 0.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold İsveç (K)'s control.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for İsveç (K) and 1.00 for İtalya (K).

What was the final score of İsveç (K) vs İtalya (K)?

İsveç (K) 3-2 İtalya (K) in the Austria - Karnten Unterliga on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İsveç (K) vs İtalya (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a İsveç (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split İsveç (K) 53%, draw 23%, İtalya (K) 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İsveç (K)) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İsveç (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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