Galler (K) 1-2 Danimarka (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Karnten Unterliga, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.48
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
51%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
13.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.42 — our 25% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
15%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
19%
+7.1pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.5pp
51%
Away Win
57%
-5.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galler (K) EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Danimarka (K) EU Bookmakers 61%
-29% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
0.35/2.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.35/0.70
+13% / -73% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +107% / +75%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
254 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 79%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
18.0 Crosses 21.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Galler (K)
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Danimarka (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
0.28 xG 2.03
36% Ball Possession 64%
5 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 5
232 Passes 476
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
31.10.2023 Danimarka (K) Danimarka (K) 2-1 HT 2-0 Galler (K) Galler (K) AVKUL
26.09.2023 Galler (K) Galler (K) 1-5 HT 0-2 Danimarka (K) Danimarka (K) AVKUL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galler (K)
1-2
AWAY Danimarka (K)
0.68 xG 1.58
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
291 Passes 377
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 35
10 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Galler (K) vs Danimarka (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Danimarka (K) nicked a narrow win over Galler (K) 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Danimarka (K) as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Galler (K) had 45% of the ball to Danimarka (K)'s 55%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.68 to 1.58.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Danimarka (K) led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Galler (K) and 3.50 for Danimarka (K).

What was the final score of Galler (K) vs Danimarka (K)?

Galler (K) 1-2 Danimarka (K) in the Austria - Karnten Unterliga on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galler (K) vs Danimarka (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Danimarka (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Galler (K) 26%, draw 22%, Danimarka (K) 51%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Danimarka (K)), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Danimarka (K)) ✓ Over 2.5
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