Hollanda (K) 3-1 Avusturya (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Karnten Unterliga, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
62%
1.33
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
14%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.16
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.36
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.16 — our 26% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
3%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Hollanda (K) win — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
71%
-8.7pp
24%
Draw
18%
+6.1pp
14%
Away Win
11%
+2.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.6pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hollanda (K) EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Avusturya (K) EU Bookmakers 14%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
3.55/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/2.01
+52% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -28%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
442 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 71%
46.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
30.6 Crosses 10.4
0.0 Yellow Cards 0.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hollanda (K)
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Avusturya (K)
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.07 xG 0.56
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
399 Passes 234
81% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.02.2023 Avusturya (K) Avusturya (K) 0-4 HT 0-2 Hollanda (K) Hollanda (K) HAZ
17.02.2023 Hollanda (K) Hollanda (K) 1-2 HT 1-0 Avusturya (K) Avusturya (K) HAZ
19.10.2017 Avusturya (K) Avusturya (K) 0-2 HT 0-1 Hollanda (K) Hollanda (K) HAZ
13.06.2017 Hollanda (K) Hollanda (K) 3-0 HT 3-0 Avusturya (K) Avusturya (K) HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hollanda (K)
3-1
AWAY Avusturya (K)
1.75 xG 0.90
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 11
478 Passes 236
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hollanda (K) vs Avusturya (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hollanda (K) got the better of Avusturya (K) 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hollanda (K) as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Hollanda (K) had 63% of the ball to Avusturya (K)'s 37%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.75 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Hollanda (K) had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Hollanda (K) and 0.50 for Avusturya (K).

What was the final score of Hollanda (K) vs Avusturya (K)?

Hollanda (K) 3-1 Avusturya (K) in the Austria - Karnten Unterliga on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hollanda (K) vs Avusturya (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hollanda (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Hollanda (K) 62%, draw 24%, Avusturya (K) 14%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hollanda (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hollanda (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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