Portekiz (K) 2-4 İspanya (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Karnten Unterliga, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
12.23
Draw
27%
5.71
Away
57%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.51
Over 2.5
52%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.16
No OUR CALL
60%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
5.19
2-3 Goals
29%
1.97
4-5 Goals
34%
2.59
6+ Goals
8%
6.13
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.19 — our 29% vs market 13.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
3%
X/2
17%
X/X
16%
2/1
3%
2/2
34%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
6%
+10.5pp
27%
Draw
15%
+12.6pp
57%
Away Win
80%
-23.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
36%
+11.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
64%
-11.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.1pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portekiz (K) EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY İspanya (K) EU Bookmakers 84%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
0.41/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.63/0.71
+84% / +109% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +76% / -1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
5 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
182 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 59%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.0
12.0 Crosses 23.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portekiz (K)
0W-0D-1L
AWAY İspanya (K)
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
21% Ball Possession 79%
1 Total Shots 19
0 Shots on Target 10
0 Corners 7
108 Passes 623
56% Pass Accuracy 86%
3 Box Touches 40
5 Crosses 25
19.07.2017 İspanya (K) İspanya (K) 2-0 HT 2-0 Portekiz (K) Portekiz (K) ABK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portekiz (K)
2-4
AWAY İspanya (K)
1.05 xG 3.33
29% Ball Possession 71%
5 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 4
186 Passes 557
71% Pass Accuracy 88%
9 Box Touches 43
5 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Portekiz (K) vs İspanya (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İspanya (K) beat Portekiz (K) 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had İspanya (K) as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Portekiz (K) had 29% of the ball to İspanya (K)'s 71%, shots finished 5-20, expected goals 1.05 to 3.33.

What was the final score of Portekiz (K) vs İspanya (K)?

Portekiz (K) 2-4 İspanya (K) in the Austria - Karnten Unterliga on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portekiz (K) vs İspanya (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an İspanya (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Portekiz (K) 16%, draw 27%, İspanya (K) 57%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İspanya (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İspanya (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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