Mechelen 5-2 Dender EH — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
32%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.41
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.37
6+ Goals
10%
12.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.53
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.75
X/1
15%
4.53
X/2
13%
8.06
X/X
10%
5.09
2/1
7%
23.3
2/2
12%
6.13
2/X
6%
14.85
Value flag · 1/X at 13.75 — our 11% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
50%
-8.7pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
32%
Away Win
25%
+6.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.0pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mechelen EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Dender EH EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -14%
1.84/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.77
+8% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
425 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 71%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.6
19.2 Crosses 21.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mechelen
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Dender EH
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.70 xG 0.99
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
385 Passes 293
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
32 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.03.2025 Mechelen Mechelen 2-1 HT 0-0 Dender EH Dender EH BEL
26.10.2024 Dender EH Dender EH 2-5 HT 0-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
21.02.2009 Dender EH Dender EH 1-2 HT 0-2 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
29.09.2008 Mechelen Mechelen 4-1 HT 4-0 Dender EH Dender EH BEL
08.03.2008 Dender EH Dender EH 0-3 HT 0-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
30.09.2007 Mechelen Mechelen 2-2 HT 1-2 Dender EH Dender EH BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mechelen
5-2
AWAY Dender EH
3.56 xG 0.71
52% Ball Possession 48%
20 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
454 Passes 417
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
34 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mechelen vs Dender EH
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mechelen cruised past Dender EH 5-2. Half-time: 4-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mechelen as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Mechelen had 52% of the ball to Dender EH's 48%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 3.56 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mechelen had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Mechelen and 1.17 for Dender EH.

What was the final score of Mechelen vs Dender EH?

Mechelen 5-2 Dender EH in the Belgium - Pro League on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mechelen vs Dender EH?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mechelen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Mechelen 41%, draw 27%, Dender EH 32%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mechelen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mechelen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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