Sporting Cristal 2-3 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.48
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
50%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.32
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.31
6+ Goals
9%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 30% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
8.4
1/2
6%
23.3
1/X
6%
16.4
X/1
7%
10.35
X/2
16%
4.22
X/X
16%
5.25
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
29%
2.12
2/X
6%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
20%
+2.7pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.1pp
50%
Away Win
56%
-5.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.8pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Cristal EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 60%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +21%
0.58/2.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.49/0.85
-3% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +94% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
13.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
17.4 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Cristal
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Palmeiras
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 9
19.04.2013 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
15.02.2013 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Cristal
2-3
AWAY Palmeiras
0.87 xG 3.59
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 6
177 Passes 313
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 38
18 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras squeezed past Sporting Cristal 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting Cristal had 40% of the ball to Palmeiras's 60%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 0.87 to 3.59 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Palmeiras's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sporting Cristal and 1.00 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras?

Sporting Cristal 2-3 Palmeiras in the Copa Libertadores on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sporting Cristal 22%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 50%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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