Stal Mielec 1-1 Cracovia Krakow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 4 Apr 2025

Stal Mielec
1-1 HT 1-0
Cracovia Krakow
📅04/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
40%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.91
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
56%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.3
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.33
6+ Goals
12%
12.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.33 — our 27% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.58
1/2
9%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
14%
5.6
X/2
14%
6.04
X/X
12%
4.77
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
17%
4.02
2/X
5%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.1pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.7pp
40%
Away Win
34%
+5.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.2pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stal Mielec v Cracovia Krakow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 38%
+6% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.67/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.94
-3% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 75%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
24.4 Crosses 21.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Mielec
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.85 xG 1.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
324 Passes 303
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.09.2024 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-1 HT 0-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
09.12.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-2 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
22.07.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-2 HT 2-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
17.02.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-1 HT 0-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
05.08.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-0 HT 1-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
01.04.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 1-2 HT 0-2 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL

Stal Mielec 1-1 Cracovia Krakow — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Mielec
1-1
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
0.84 xG 1.72
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
350 Passes 436
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 28
21 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 23% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Stal Mielec had 47% of the ball to Cracovia Krakow's 53%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 0.84 to 1.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cracovia Krakow led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Stal Mielec and 1.50 for Cracovia Krakow.

What was the final score of Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?

Stal Mielec 1-1 Cracovia Krakow in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cracovia Krakow win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Stal Mielec 37%, draw 23%, Cracovia Krakow 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cracovia Krakow), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cracovia Krakow) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
4 Apr 2025
21:30 Widzew Lodz vs Lechia Gdansk Analysis →