Lugano 1-0 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 4 Apr 2026

Lugano
1 - 0 HT 0 - 0
Thun
📅04/04/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2025/2026

Lugano vs Thun Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
2.29
Over Pick
62%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.46
No
38%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
18%
4.56
2-3
42%
1.88
4-5
29%
2.74
6+
11%
7.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.49
1/2
3%
24.35
1/X
5%
12.1
X/1
14%
5.97
X/2
12%
6.04
X/X
16%
5.44
2/1 ✗
3%
23.95
2/2
19%
3.55
2/X
5%
12.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.95 — our 3% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Lugano v Thun — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Lugano The Market 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun The Market 40%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Great
1.76 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.63
1.11 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.60
Average Attack Strength Strong
Strong Defense Strength Strong
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
284 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
20 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3

Lugano vs Thun Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Thun
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.55 xG 1.26
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
349 Passes 293
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.11.2025 Thun Thun 0-1 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
27.07.2025 Lugano Lugano 1-2 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV
10.02.2022 Thun Thun 3-4 HT 1-2 Lugano Lugano İSVK
15.07.2020 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV
09.02.2020 Thun Thun 3-2 HT 2-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
24.11.2019 Thun Thun 0-3 HT 0-2 Lugano Lugano İSV

Lugano 1-0 Thun — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
1 - 0
AWAY Thun
1.66 xG 1.39
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
342 Passes 234
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Lugano vs Thun
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Lugano found just enough to beat Thun 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

The model refused to pick a side here (40% / 26% / 34%); Lugano picked one for it. The one blemish: over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (62%) never looked like landing.

By the numbers, Lugano had 57% of the ball to Thun's 43%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.66 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lugano and 1.50 for Thun.

Lugano vs Thun Result & Final Score

Lugano 1 - 0 Thun in the Switzerland - Super League on 04/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Lugano vs Thun Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lugano 40%, draw 26%, Thun 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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İSV More Switzerland - Super League
4 Apr 2026
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