Asteras Tripolis 3-1 AE Larissa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 4 Apr 2026

📅04/04/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.39
2-3 Goals
42%
1.7
4-5 Goals
17%
4.38
6+ Goals
9%
23.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.96
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
11%
4.56
X/2
8%
6.92
X/X
13%
3.94
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
15%
5.61
2/X
8%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-0.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.3pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Asteras Tripolis EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY AE Larissa EU Bookmakers 30%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +10%
1.20/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.45
+10% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
303 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 80%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
23.8 Crosses 16.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Asteras Tripolis
3W-2D-1L
AWAY AE Larissa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.15 xG 1.11
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
304 Passes 320
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
14.03.2026 AE Larissa AE Larissa 1-1 HT 0-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
14.09.2025 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 2-2 HT 2-0 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN
23.01.2021 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 1-0 HT 0-0 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN
18.10.2020 AE Larissa AE Larissa 1-3 HT 0-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
07.06.2020 AE Larissa AE Larissa 1-2 HT 1-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
01.03.2020 AE Larissa AE Larissa 3-0 HT 3-0 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Asteras Tripolis
3-1
AWAY AE Larissa
1.41 xG 0.74
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
254 Passes 459
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
10 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Asteras Tripolis vs AE Larissa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Asteras Tripolis saw off AE Larissa 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Asteras Tripolis as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Asteras Tripolis had 38% of the ball to AE Larissa's 62%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.41 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Asteras Tripolis had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.33 for AE Larissa.

What was the final score of Asteras Tripolis vs AE Larissa?

Asteras Tripolis 3-1 AE Larissa in the Greece - Super League on 04/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Asteras Tripolis vs AE Larissa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Asteras Tripolis win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Asteras Tripolis 44%, draw 27%, AE Larissa 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Asteras Tripolis) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Asteras Tripolis) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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