Jablonec 3-2 Karvina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
24%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.36
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+1.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.0pp
24%
Away Win
25%
-1.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jablonec EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Karvina EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.25/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.47
-15% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
325 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 75%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jablonec
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Karvina
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.12.2023 Jablonec Jablonec 0-0 HT 0-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
19.08.2023 Karvina Karvina 1-1 HT 0-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
01.05.2022 Jablonec Jablonec 2-0 HT 2-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
13.02.2022 Karvina Karvina 1-1 HT 0-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
12.09.2021 Jablonec Jablonec 1-0 HT 1-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
20.04.2021 Jablonec Jablonec 3-0 HT 3-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jablonec
3-2
AWAY Karvina
0.71 xG 0.27
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
176 Passes 168
62% Pass Accuracy 61%
22 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jablonec vs Karvina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jablonec edged past Karvina 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Jablonec as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Jablonec had 50% of the ball to Karvina's 50%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 0.71 to 0.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jablonec had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Jablonec and 0.33 for Karvina.

What was the final score of Jablonec vs Karvina?

Jablonec 3-2 Karvina in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jablonec vs Karvina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jablonec win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Jablonec 48%, draw 28%, Karvina 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jablonec) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Jablonec) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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