Cumbaya 1-0 Macara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.5
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.54
Over 2.5
44%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.03
No
49%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
49%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
15%
X/1
8%
X/2
23%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+1.9pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.5pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-3.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
61%
-5.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
39%
+5.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
45%
+5.6pp
49%
BTTS No
55%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cumbaya EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Macara EU Bookmakers 49%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.85/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.18
-9% / +77% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +86%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
270 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 80%
12.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
13.2 Crosses 15.7
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cumbaya
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Macara
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.24 xG 0.83
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
215 Passes 287
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
8 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
14.08.2022 Cumbaya Cumbaya 1-0 HT 1-0 Macara Macara EKV1
05.04.2022 Macara Macara 0-0 HT 0-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cumbaya
1-0
AWAY Macara
1.23 xG 0.60
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
258 Passes 246
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Cumbaya vs Macara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cumbaya edged past Macara 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Macara at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Cumbaya had 52% of the ball to Macara's 48%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.23 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cumbaya had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cumbaya and 0.00 for Macara.

What was the final score of Cumbaya vs Macara?

Cumbaya 1-0 Macara in the Ecuador - Premier on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cumbaya vs Macara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Macara win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cumbaya 27%, draw 31%, Macara 42%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Macara), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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