Mushuc Runa 0-1 LDU Quito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.75
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
44%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.1
Over 2.5
45%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
11%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
23%
+4.7pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.5pp
44%
Away Win
54%
-10.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.6pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 58%
-9% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
0.93/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.09
-44% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / -36%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
280 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 83%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
19.7 Crosses 17.2
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
0W-2D-4L
AWAY LDU Quito
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.01 xG 1.50
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
222 Passes 396
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 LDU Quito LDU Quito 3-1 HT 2-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
18.06.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-2 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
10.09.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-2 HT 1-1 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
24.04.2022 LDU Quito LDU Quito 3-2 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
17.03.2022 LDU Quito LDU Quito 1-1 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa CON CSA
10.03.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-2 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
0-1
AWAY LDU Quito
0.51 xG 0.60
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
179 Passes 160
69% Pass Accuracy 66%
18 Box Touches 19
29 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs LDU Quito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

LDU Quito nicked a narrow win over Mushuc Runa 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had LDU Quito as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 53% of the ball to LDU Quito's 47%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 0.51 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, LDU Quito led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Mushuc Runa and 2.17 for LDU Quito.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs LDU Quito?

Mushuc Runa 0-1 LDU Quito in the Ecuador - Premier on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs LDU Quito?

Before kick-off our model rated an LDU Quito win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 28%, draw 28%, LDU Quito 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (LDU Quito), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (LDU Quito) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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