Orense 0-1 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.2pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.0pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orense EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 26%
-10% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -10%
1.42/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.44
-32% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 72%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
21.3 Crosses 20.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orense
1W-2D-1L
AWAY El Nacional
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.33 xG 1.32
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
219 Passes 224
70% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
21.10.2023 Orense Orense 1-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
13.05.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 3-1 HT 3-0 Orense Orense EKV1
20.12.2020 Orense Orense 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
26.09.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 2-2 HT 1-2 Orense Orense EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orense
0-1
AWAY El Nacional
0.23 xG 0.95
60% Ball Possession 40%
5 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 3
318 Passes 201
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
10 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Orense vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Nacional edged past Orense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Orense at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Orense had 60% of the ball to El Nacional's 40%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.23 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Orense and 1.50 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Orense vs El Nacional?

Orense 0-1 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orense vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orense win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Orense 46%, draw 29%, El Nacional 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Orense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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