Ilves Tampere 3-2 Oulu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
32%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.07
Over 2.5
57%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.7
No
43%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.88
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.16
6+ Goals
13%
10.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.23
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.8
X/1
15%
4.06
X/2
11%
8.92
X/X
13%
5.56
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
11%
6.59
2/X
8%
15.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 10% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
53%
-11.9pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.1pp
32%
Away Win
23%
+8.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.6pp
43%
BTTS No
45%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Oulu EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.40/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.21
-15% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 82%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
20.2 Crosses 18.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilves Tampere
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Oulu
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.83 xG 1.92
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
309 Passes 368
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
08.02.2024 Oulu Oulu 0-1 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FLK
06.10.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-2 HT 1-0 Oulu Oulu FİN
23.08.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-0 HT 0-0 Oulu Oulu FİK
19.08.2023 Oulu Oulu 0-3 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
05.05.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-2 HT 1-0 Oulu Oulu FİN
28.01.2023 Oulu Oulu 0-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
3-2
AWAY Oulu
3.83 xG 0.82
59% Ball Possession 41%
23 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
488 Passes 320
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
42 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs Oulu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere edged past Oulu 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ilves Tampere as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 59% of the ball to Oulu's 41%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 3.83 to 0.82 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ilves Tampere's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ilves Tampere had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ilves Tampere and 0.67 for Oulu.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs Oulu?

Ilves Tampere 3-2 Oulu in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs Oulu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 41%, draw 27%, Oulu 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilves Tampere), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FİN More Finland - Veikkausliiga
4 May 2024
17:00 HJK Helsinki vs EIF Analysis →
19:00 SJK Seinajoki vs KuPS Kuopio Analysis →