Puskas FC 4-2 Kisvarda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.38
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.51
6+ Goals
11%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 26% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
12%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
56%
-5.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puskas FC EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Kisvarda EU Bookmakers 23%
-8% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -14%
1.78/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.97
-15% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
366 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
28.1 Crosses 21.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puskas FC
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Kisvarda
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.69 xG 0.81
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
288 Passes 282
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Kisvarda Kisvarda 0-2 HT 0-2 Puskas FC Puskas FC MAC
06.10.2023 Puskas FC Puskas FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
01.04.2023 Kisvarda Kisvarda 2-2 HT 1-0 Puskas FC Puskas FC MAC
05.11.2022 Puskas FC Puskas FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
14.08.2022 Kisvarda Kisvarda 1-1 HT 0-1 Puskas FC Puskas FC MAC
17.04.2022 Puskas FC Puskas FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Kisvarda Kisvarda MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puskas FC
4-2
AWAY Kisvarda
3.24 xG 1.92
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 21
8 Shots on Target 11
2 Corners 5
292 Passes 312
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Puskas FC vs Kisvarda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puskas FC beat Kisvarda 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Puskas FC as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Puskas FC had 48% of the ball to Kisvarda's 52%, shots finished 18-21, expected goals 3.24 to 1.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puskas FC had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Puskas FC and 0.67 for Kisvarda.

What was the final score of Puskas FC vs Kisvarda?

Puskas FC 4-2 Kisvarda in the Hungary - NB I on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puskas FC vs Kisvarda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puskas FC win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Puskas FC 51%, draw 24%, Kisvarda 25%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Puskas FC), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Puskas FC) ✓ Over 2.5
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