Al Ahly 3-0 El Gounah — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.3
Draw
27%
4.81
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.07
Over 2.5
43%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 31% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
72%
-18.3pp
27%
Draw
17%
+9.4pp
19%
Away Win
10%
+8.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
44%
+12.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
56%
-12.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.3pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY El Gounah EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.74/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.45
+17% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +81% / -4%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
422 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 73%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.5
19.9 Crosses 14.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahly
2W-4D-0L
AWAY El Gounah
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.73 xG 0.76
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
388 Passes 193
80% Pass Accuracy 67%
28 Box Touches 8
22 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.11.2023 El Gounah El Gounah 1-1 HT 1-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
24.07.2022 Al Ahly Al Ahly 2-0 HT 0-0 El Gounah El Gounah MSR
05.07.2022 El Gounah El Gounah 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
24.08.2021 El Gounah El Gounah 3-3 HT 1-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
30.04.2021 Al Ahly Al Ahly 1-1 HT 0-0 El Gounah El Gounah MSR
26.08.2020 Al Ahly Al Ahly 1-0 HT 0-0 El Gounah El Gounah MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahly
3-0
AWAY El Gounah
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Al Ahly vs El Gounah
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly swept aside El Gounah 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Ahly as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Al Ahly had 60% of the ball to El Gounah's 40%, shots finished 15-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahly had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Al Ahly and 0.83 for El Gounah.

What was the final score of Al Ahly vs El Gounah?

Al Ahly 3-0 El Gounah in the Egypt - Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahly vs El Gounah?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Al Ahly 54%, draw 27%, El Gounah 19%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahly), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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