Lech Poznan II 1-1 Kalisz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 2nd Division, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
40%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.56
No
52%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.03
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
10.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.03 — our 30% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.5pp
40%
Away Win
40%
-0.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.8pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan II EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Kalisz EU Bookmakers 45%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
0.90/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/0.96
-37% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Kalisz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2023 Kalisz Kalisz 2-1 HT 2-1 Lech Poznan II Lech Poznan II POL2
23.04.2023 Lech Poznan II Lech Poznan II 0-4 HT 0-3 Kalisz Kalisz POL2
18.09.2022 Kalisz Kalisz 2-2 HT 2-1 Lech Poznan II Lech Poznan II POL2
01.05.2022 Lech Poznan II Lech Poznan II 1-0 HT 0-0 Kalisz Kalisz POL2
15.05.2021 Lech Poznan II Lech Poznan II 2-0 HT 1-0 Kalisz Kalisz POL2
21.11.2020 Kalisz Kalisz 2-0 HT 2-0 Lech Poznan II Lech Poznan II POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan II
1-1
AWAY Kalisz
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan II vs Kalisz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan II and Kalisz shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lech Poznan II had 51% of the ball to Kalisz's 49%, shots finished 8-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kalisz led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lech Poznan II and 1.67 for Kalisz.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan II vs Kalisz?

Lech Poznan II 1-1 Kalisz in the Poland - 2nd Division on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan II vs Kalisz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kalisz win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan II 37%, draw 24%, Kalisz 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kalisz), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kalisz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL2 More Poland - 2nd Division
4 May 2024
13:00 SKRA Czestochowa vs Wisla Pulawy Analysis →
18:00 Olimpia Elblag vs Hutnik Krakow Analysis →
18:30 Olimpia Grudziadz vs Stal Stalowa Wola Analysis →