UD Oliveirense 2-1 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 4 May 2024

UD Oliveirense
2-1 HT 2-1
Tondela
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

UD Oliveirense vs Tondela Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
39%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.14
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.73
6+ Goals
10%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 27% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
44%
-11.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.7pp
39%
Away Win
29%
+9.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

UD Oliveirense v Tondela — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +16%
1.65/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.03
+21% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +47%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
317 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.8 Crosses 16.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9

UD Oliveirense vs Tondela Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Oliveirense
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Tondela
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.47 xG 1.38
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
370 Passes 268
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.12.2023 Tondela Tondela 1-0 HT 1-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
01.04.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
19.10.2022 Tondela Tondela 1-3 HT 1-2 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
17.07.2019 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela HAZ
22.07.2015 Tondela Tondela 0-0 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense HAZ
22.02.2015 Tondela Tondela 0-0 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2

UD Oliveirense 2-1 Tondela — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD Oliveirense
2-1
AWAY Tondela
1.45 xG 0.85
33% Ball Possession 67%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 8
151 Passes 367
67% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH UD Oliveirense vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Oliveirense nicked a narrow win over Tondela 2-1.

Our pre-match split (32% / 29% / 39%) promised a tight game; UD Oliveirense found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, UD Oliveirense had 33% of the ball to Tondela's 67%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.45 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for UD Oliveirense and 0.33 for Tondela.

What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs Tondela?

UD Oliveirense 2-1 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 32%, draw 29%, Tondela 39%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tondela), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tondela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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