Kayserispor 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
29%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.82
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.21
6+ Goals
10%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 27% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.77
1/2
10%
27.5
1/X
7%
11.75
X/1
15%
6.01
X/2
10%
5.81
X/X
14%
4.58
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
10%
3.6
2/X
7%
11.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
36%
+6.0pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
30%
Away Win
36%
-6.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.1pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 40%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
1.48/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.54
-3% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
293 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
21.1 Crosses 18.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kayserispor
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.43 xG 1.47
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
410 Passes 370
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.01.2024 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 HT 3-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
30.05.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 HT 2-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
04.01.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-4 HT 0-2 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
18.03.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 HT 2-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
31.10.2021 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-1 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
19.03.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 HT 1-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kayserispor
2-2
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.73 xG 1.79
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
323 Passes 326
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Kayserispor at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Kayserispor had 50% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 50%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.73 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fatih Karagümrük led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kayserispor and 2.83 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Kayserispor 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - Super League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kayserispor win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Kayserispor 42%, draw 29%, Fatih Karagümrük 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kayserispor), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kayserispor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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