Samsunspor 3-1 Trabzonspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.23
2-3 Goals
46%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.82
1/2
5%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.35
X/1
17%
5.72
X/2
12%
5.66
X/X
13%
4.3
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
12%
3.76
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
12.35
Value flag · 2/X at 12.35 — our 9% vs market 5.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
36%
+6.8pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
30%
Away Win
36%
-6.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.1pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Trabzonspor EU Bookmakers 39%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -13%
1.62/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.48
-30% / +84% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 78%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
17.6 Crosses 16.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Samsunspor
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Trabzonspor
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
2.35 xG 1.25
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
260 Passes 398
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 23
6 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.01.2024 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 2-1 HT 2-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
21.12.2022 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 3-0 HT 2-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TÜK
29.07.2018 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 3-0 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor HAZ
27.03.2016 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 2-3 HT 1-3 Samsunspor Samsunspor HAZ
15.01.2012 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 4-0 HT 1-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
21.09.2011 Samsunspor Samsunspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Samsunspor
3-1
AWAY Trabzonspor
1.97 xG 0.31
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
197 Passes 455
68% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 6
14 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Samsunspor saw off Trabzonspor 3-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Samsunspor as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Samsunspor had 35% of the ball to Trabzonspor's 65%, shots finished 8-6, expected goals 1.97 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Trabzonspor led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Samsunspor and 2.50 for Trabzonspor.

What was the final score of Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?

Samsunspor 3-1 Trabzonspor in the Turkey - Super League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Samsunspor win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Samsunspor 43%, draw 28%, Trabzonspor 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Samsunspor), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Samsunspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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