Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 Kayserispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 10 Jan 2024

📅10/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
25%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.15
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.76
6+ Goals
10%
16.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 30% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.83
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.15
X/1
20%
4.54
X/2
8%
7.0
X/X
15%
4.42
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
11%
5.21
2/X
7%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
25%
Away Win
27%
-2.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 31%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
1.62/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.59
+44% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
18.8 Crosses 16.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Kayserispor
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.38 xG 1.39
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
381 Passes 404
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.05.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 HT 2-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
04.01.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-4 HT 0-2 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
18.03.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 HT 2-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
31.10.2021 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-1 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
19.03.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 HT 1-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
30.11.2020 Kayserispor Kayserispor 0-0 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
4-1
AWAY Kayserispor
1.27 xG 1.81
40% Ball Possession 60%
15 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
278 Passes 448
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük ran out comfortable winners over Kayserispor 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fatih Karagümrük as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 40% of the ball to Kayserispor's 60%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.27 to 1.81 — the balance of chances actually favoured Kayserispor.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fatih Karagümrük had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.67 for Kayserispor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?

Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 Kayserispor in the Turkey - Super League on 10/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 48%, draw 27%, Kayserispor 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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