Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 Ingolstadt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 4 May 2025

Erzgebirge Aue
1-0 HT 1-0
Ingolstadt
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2024/2025

Erzgebirge Aue vs Ingolstadt Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
3.11
6+ Goals
12%
9.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.18
1/2
12%
27.5
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
12%
5.44
X/2
12%
6.55
X/X
12%
5.36
2/1
12%
23.75
2/2
10%
4.23
2/X
6%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+1.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.7pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erzgebirge Aue v Ingolstadt — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 36%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.49/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.56
-3% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
305 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
15.5 Crosses 21.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9

Erzgebirge Aue vs Ingolstadt Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Ingolstadt
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.16 xG 0.70
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
380 Passes 391
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.12.2024 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
19.12.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
06.08.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
20.05.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-3 HT 0-3 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
16.01.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-2 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
01.04.2022 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 3-2 HT 2-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2

Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 Ingolstadt — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
1-0
AWAY Ingolstadt
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
331 Passes 445
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Ingolstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue squeezed past Ingolstadt 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Erzgebirge Aue as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 44% of the ball to Ingolstadt's 56%, shots finished 10-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ingolstadt led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.50 for Ingolstadt.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Ingolstadt?

Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 Ingolstadt in the Germany - 3rd Division on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Ingolstadt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 42%, draw 24%, Ingolstadt 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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