Ingolstadt 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 7 Dec 2024

Ingolstadt
1-0 HT 0-0
Erzgebirge Aue
📅07/12/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2025/2026

Ingolstadt vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.45
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
8.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.77
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
11%
4.91
X/2
11%
7.25
X/X
13%
5.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.0
2/2
12%
4.78
2/X
7%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+0.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.4pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ingolstadt v Erzgebirge Aue — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.89/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.76
+15% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 75%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.1 Crosses 16.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Ingolstadt vs Erzgebirge Aue Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ingolstadt
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.69 xG 1.05
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
296 Passes 306
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.12.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
06.08.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
20.05.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-3 HT 0-3 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
16.01.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-2 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
01.04.2022 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 3-2 HT 2-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
22.10.2021 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2

Ingolstadt 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ingolstadt
1-0
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
366 Passes 391
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ingolstadt vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ingolstadt edged past Erzgebirge Aue 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ingolstadt as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Ingolstadt had 48% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 52%, shots finished 8-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ingolstadt and 1.17 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Ingolstadt vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Ingolstadt 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ingolstadt vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ingolstadt win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ingolstadt 44%, draw 26%, Erzgebirge Aue 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ingolstadt) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ingolstadt) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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